Ukushintsha Ulwazi kanye Nesayensi Eguqukayo
Manje sengimdala ngokwanele ukuba ngibone ukunakekelwa kwezempilo kuguquka futhi kuguquka kakhulu. Kusukela ekwelashweni kokuhlaselwa yinhliziyo, ushintsho ekulawuleni izinhlungu ezisezingeni eliphansi, nokunakekelwa kwe-HIV, umuthi uyaqhubeka nokuzivumelanisa nokushintsha ngokwengeziwe lapho sifunda nokusetshenziswa kobufakazi bokuqondisa ukwelashwa.
Ubufakazi? Ngikhumbula izingxoxo eziningi neziguli ezazizwa ukuthi ukushiwo nje "ngemithi esekwe ebufakazini" noma i-EBM, kwakuyisandulela sokutshelwa ukuthi ngeke zithole okuthile ezikufunayo.
Okushintshile emsebenzini wami ukunyakaza kwesizathu sokuthi siziphatha kanjani izimo ezahlukahlukene kusuka "ekuboneni kontanga," okusho ukuthi ochwepheshe "ukuqagela okungcono" bekuyini ekusetshenzisweni kocwaningo (izilingo ezilawulwa ngokungahleliwe, uma kungenzeka) ukuqhathanisa ukwelashwa A ekwelashweni B.
Inselele: shintsha. Esikwaziyo kuguquka njalo. Isayensi iyaqhubeka nokuvela futhi siyaqhubeka nokufunda nsuku zonke.
Ngakho-ke, manje silapha nge-COVID-19.
Ngokushesha, ucwaningo lubheka zonke izici zalesi sifo esithathelwanayo. Lokhu kufaka yonke into kusukela ekwelapheni ukutheleleka okwenzeka sekwedlule isikhathi e-ICU kuya ekuvikeleni ngokwanele abantu ekutholeni leli gciwane elithe xaxa kwasekuqaleni. Sizama nokuqonda ukuthi yini ethinta ubungozi bomunye nomunye wemiphumela emibi kakhulu. Amaphethini ayavela, futhi imininingwane eminingi izofika.
Enye indawo ethola ukunakwa okuningi okufanele ukukhiqizwa komzimba kwama-antibodies. Kunezindlela ezimbili ngokuyisisekelo zokwakha amasosha omzimba egciwane. Singazithola ngemuva kokungenwa yilesi sifo (uma sicabanga ukuthi asizange sinqotshwe yilesi sifo) noma sithola imigomo evamise ukuba yigciwane “elincishisiwe”. Le yinqubo lapho igciwane lincishisiwe (“de-fanged”) ekusebenzeni kwalo, kepha lisaqhubeka nempendulo ye-antibody.
Yilapho sonke isenzo sikhona… khona manje.
Esikwaziyo kuze kube manje ukuthi i-COVID-19 idala impendulo yama-antibody, kepha njengoba ishicilelwe ku-Journal Igazi ngo-Okthoba 1, la ma-antibody ahlala kuphela, noma aqala ukunyamalala cishe ezinyangeni ezintathu kuya kwezine ngemuva kokutheleleka. Futhi, kubonakala sengathi ukutheleleka kuba kubi kakhulu, kuphakama inani lama-antibodies akhiqizwayo.
Manje sizwa ngokutholakala komuthi wokugoma osebenza ngokusebenzisa i- I-RNA yeseli elibonakala lakha ukuvikeleka cishe ezinsukwini eziyisikhombisa ngemuva komthamo wesibili. Lokhu kungashintsha umdlalo. Okunye ukuqaphela ukuthi idatha idinga ukuqinisekiswa abanye ososayensi futhi abantu abaningi badinga ukufundelwa ukuhlola imiphumela emibi. Noma kusebenza, ukutholakala kwabantu abaningi kungaba izinyanga kude. Uma umuthi wokugoma utholakala futhi kuzodingeka ukuthi sibeke phambili abasebenzi abasebenza phambili kanye nalabo abasengozini yezempilo.
Kusho ukuthini lokhu kimi njengomhlinzeki wokunakekelwa oyinhloko? Ijaji lisaphumile, kepha ngiyasola ukuthi i-COVID-19 ingahle ifane nomkhuhlane futhi ingadinga ukugoma minyaka yonke. Lokhu kusho nokuthi ezinye izindlela zokuzivikela njengokugeza izandla, izifihla-buso, ukugcina izandla zikude nobuso, nokuhlala ekhaya lapho ugula kuzoqhubeka kubaluleke. Yize kungaba kuhle, angicabangi ukuthi lokhu kuyoke kube yisimo "esisodwa nesenziwe". Kokubili i-COVID-19 nomkhuhlane, kungenzeka ukusabalalisa igciwane kwabanye ngaphambi kokuthola noma yiziphi izimpawu. Abantu bangasabalalisa i-COVID-19 cishe izinsuku ezimbili ngaphambi kokuthola izimpawu noma izimpawu futhi bahlale bethathelana okungenani izinsuku eziyi-10 ngemuva kokuvela kwezimpawu. (Abantu abanomkhuhlane bavame ukutheleleka ngolunye usuku ngaphambi kokubonisa izimpawu futhi bahlala bethelelana cishe izinsuku eziyisikhombisa.)
Okunye futhi, iphuzu, ngokusho kwabaphenyi, ukuthi ukucisha ubhadane oluqhubekayo lwe-COVID-19, umuthi wokugoma kufanele ube nokusebenza okungenani kuka-80%, kuthi abantu abangama-75% bawuthole. Ngoba lokhu kutholakala kokugoma okuphezulu kubonakala kungeke kwenzeke maduze, ezinye izinyathelo ezinjengokuqhela kwezenhlalo nokugqoka izifihla-buso kuzoba yizinyathelo ezibalulekile zokuvikela ikusasa elibonakalayo. (Umthombo: UBartsch SM, u-O'Shea KJ, uFerguson MC, et al. Ukusebenza kokugoma okudingekayo kumuthi wokugoma we-COVID-19 coronavirus ukuvimbela noma ukumisa ubhadane njengongenelelo olulodwa. Am J Prev Med. 2020;59(4):493−503.)
Ngaphezu kwalokho, uma sesiwutholile umuthi wokugoma, njengomkhuhlane nje, kuzobekwa phambili ukuthi ngubani okufanele athole umuthi wokugoma nokuthi uzolandelana kanjani. INational Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine iveze izincomo zokusatshalaliswa kwemithi yokugoma i-COVID-19, ifuna abasebenzi bezempilo abasengozini enkulu kanye nabaphenduli bokuqala ukuthi bathole imithamo yokuqala, kulandelwe izakhamizi ezindala ezikhungweni ezinjengamakhaya asebekhulile nabantu abadala abakhona izimo ezibabeka engcupheni eyengeziwe. Iphaneli lifune ukuthi izifundazwe namadolobha zigxile ekuqinisekiseni ukutholakala kwemiphakathi emincane kanye nokuthi i-United States isekele ukufinyelela emazweni anemali ephansi.
Njengodokotela wemithi yomndeni, ngihlala ngizama ukukhumbula lokho umeluleki angitshela khona eminyakeni eyedlule: “Icebo ukuqagela kwanamuhla.” Kufanele sisebenze kulokho esikwaziyo manje, futhi sizimisele (futhi sivule) kulwazi olusha nokufundwayo. Into eyodwa iqinisekile, ushintsho kuzoba njalo.